three years or so.
Along with others in the
renewables lobby, it hopes the
60-day consultation window
that opened after the publication
of the draft IRP can be used to
Boom and bust procurement
can be very damaging to the
development of a localised supply
chain, SAWEA tells Recharge in a
statement. Attracting investors
whether domestic or international
requires reasonable
certainty of a pipeline
or demand.
Independent
industry analysts
agree that a three-year
hole in activity would
spell trouble for the
South African sector
and potentially for
the overall renewables capacity
ambitions set out in the IRP.
A three-year gap period
for wind power would cause
commercial losses for local
manufacturers, particularly
those with limited export
opportunities, says Sohaib Malik,
The inclusion of new coal
capacity will add $1.35bn of
unnecessary costs for South
African consumers
show Radebe and his officials the
dangers of the plan as it currently
stands and persuade them to
change it, or risk undermining
the industrial benefits wind has
already brought to the South
African economy via the 2.1GW
installed by the end of 2017.
an analyst at wind consultancy
MAKE. Moreover, as more and
more governments compete over
international capital to support
renewable-energy development
in their countries, international
investors, who have contributed
substantially to the success of
South Africas renewable energy
industry, may find the market less
attractive.
If the South African
government does not introduce
a concrete renewable power
development plan to support
market growth between 2020
and 2025, it may have difficulty
in achieving its ambitious target
of 14GW of wind and solar PV
capacity from 2025 to 2030.
The root of the problem facing
renewables in the early part of the
next decade under the IRP as it
currently stands can be summed
up in one word coal.
Nuclear may have vanished
from South Africas plans but coal
remains centre stage, and will
still account for 46% of South
Africas power fleet by capacity in
2030 under the scenario set out
in the draft IRP document. Coal
capacity dominates the installed
generation fleet of financiallytroubled state power giant
Eskom accounting for 36GW
out of 43.5GW in 2017 and
coal mining is a major employer
and source of exports for South
Africa, with all the political
sensitivities that creates.
Malik points out that the IRP
proposes adding 6.7GW of new
coal capacity between 2019 and
2024 time that he argues would
be better spent optimising the
benefits of renewable energy and
improving the overall economic
stability of its electricity market.
As it stands, the bad and
worsening economics of coalEskoms Hendrina
coal-fired power
station in eastern
South Africa
fired generation compared to
ever-cheaper renewables mean
the inclusion of new capacity
in the IRP will add 20bn rand
($1.35bn) of unnecessary costs
for South African consumers,
according to calculations by
Greenpeace Africa.
Chris Ahlfeldt, a South African
energy specialist for consultancy
Blue Horizon, tells Recharge that
Eskom needs reforming by the
government to allow it to focus
on managing the grid rather than
generation.
Jeff
Radebe
In any case, according to
Ahlfeldt, Eskom will increasingly
be forced to recognise the
interests of bill-payers by
prioritising renewable IPP
projects that are producing some
of the cheapest power on the
market.
In addition, the smaller-scale
distributed generation market
projects are continuing to grow
rapidly, especially for solar PV
as more customers are opting
for less expensive rooftop solar
solutions to reduce their risk
exposure to Eskoms rising tariffs,
he says. This trend is expected
to continue especially as battery
prices continue to decrease.
SAWEA, which told
Recharge it began work on a
strong submission over the
procurement gap issue as soon
as the draft IRP was published,
adds: We are reasonably hopeful
that government will recognise
the need to urgently reassess the
assumptions that have resulted in
the draft plan, particularly given
the readily available evidence of
the many socio-economic risks
associated with a continued
investment in coal.
The IRP is expected to be
finalised in the first quarter of
2019.
rechargenews.com
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