three years or so. Along with others in the renewables lobby, it hopes the 60-day consultation window that opened after the publication of the draft IRP can be used to Boom and bust procurement can be very damaging to the development of a localised supply chain, SAWEA tells Recharge in a statement. Attracting investors whether domestic or international requires reasonable certainty of a pipeline or demand. Independent industry analysts agree that a three-year hole in activity would spell trouble for the South African sector and potentially for the overall renewables capacity ambitions set out in the IRP. A three-year gap period for wind power would cause commercial losses for local manufacturers, particularly those with limited export opportunities, says Sohaib Malik, The inclusion of new coal capacity will add $1.35bn of unnecessary costs for South African consumers show Radebe and his officials the dangers of the plan as it currently stands and persuade them to change it, or risk undermining the industrial benefits wind has already brought to the South African economy via the 2.1GW installed by the end of 2017. an analyst at wind consultancy MAKE. Moreover, as more and more governments compete over international capital to support renewable-energy development in their countries, international investors, who have contributed substantially to the success of South Africas renewable energy industry, may find the market less attractive. If the South African government does not introduce a concrete renewable power development plan to support market growth between 2020 and 2025, it may have difficulty in achieving its ambitious target of 14GW of wind and solar PV capacity from 2025 to 2030. The root of the problem facing renewables in the early part of the next decade under the IRP as it currently stands can be summed up in one word coal. Nuclear may have vanished from South Africas plans but coal remains centre stage, and will still account for 46% of South Africas power fleet by capacity in 2030 under the scenario set out in the draft IRP document. Coal capacity dominates the installed generation fleet of financiallytroubled state power giant Eskom accounting for 36GW out of 43.5GW in 2017 and coal mining is a major employer and source of exports for South Africa, with all the political sensitivities that creates. Malik points out that the IRP proposes adding 6.7GW of new coal capacity between 2019 and 2024 time that he argues would be better spent optimising the benefits of renewable energy and improving the overall economic stability of its electricity market. As it stands, the bad and worsening economics of coalEskoms Hendrina coal-fired power station in eastern South Africa fired generation compared to ever-cheaper renewables mean the inclusion of new capacity in the IRP will add 20bn rand ($1.35bn) of unnecessary costs for South African consumers, according to calculations by Greenpeace Africa. Chris Ahlfeldt, a South African energy specialist for consultancy Blue Horizon, tells Recharge that Eskom needs reforming by the government to allow it to focus on managing the grid rather than generation. Jeff Radebe In any case, according to Ahlfeldt, Eskom will increasingly be forced to recognise the interests of bill-payers by prioritising renewable IPP projects that are producing some of the cheapest power on the market. In addition, the smaller-scale distributed generation market projects are continuing to grow rapidly, especially for solar PV as more customers are opting for less expensive rooftop solar solutions to reduce their risk exposure to Eskoms rising tariffs, he says. This trend is expected to continue especially as battery prices continue to decrease. SAWEA, which told Recharge it began work on a strong submission over the procurement gap issue as soon as the draft IRP was published, adds: We are reasonably hopeful that government will recognise the need to urgently reassess the assumptions that have resulted in the draft plan, particularly given the readily available evidence of the many socio-economic risks associated with a continued investment in coal. The IRP is expected to be finalised in the first quarter of 2019. rechargenews.com 15 OFFICIAL SHOW DAILY Global Wind Summit 2018 Visit us at Stand 318, Hall B7 Visit us at Stand 318, Hall B7 Produced by RECHARGE rechargenews.com Poland to unveil 1GW renewables tender BERND RADOWITZ Photograph Bernd Radowitz P olands energy regulator is expected to announce details of a clos WINDENERGY 2014 RECHARGE OFFICIAL EVENT DAILY ProducedHAMBURG by RECHARGE rechargenews.com BERND RADOWITZ Siemens Gamesas offshore wind boss, Andreas Nauen Photography Siemens Gamesa A fter Taiwan, Japan will be the next big market for offshore wind power in Asia, with projects of at least WINDENERGY 2014 RECHARGE OFFICIAL EVENT DAILY ProducedHAMBURG by RECHARGE rechargenews.com ANDREW LEE A rgentinas renewables programme is well shielded to ride out the economic storm battering the country, claimed the governments renewable energy under-secretary. 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